Publications
Qin, B., and Zhang, Y., 2014, Note on Urbanization in China: Urban Definitions and Census Data, China Economic Review, 30, 498-502. (Corresponding author: Zhang, Y.)
Du, B., and Zhang, Y., 2011, Gray Correlation Analysis on Population Factors and Housing Sales Price Index (HSPI) (in Chinese), Population Journal, 1(6), 13-19.
Du, B., and Zhang, Y., 2011, Infant Mortality Rate Statistic Methods and Difference Analysis in China, Open Journal of Statistics, 1(3), 236-243.
Du, B., and Zhang, Y., 2011, Gray Correlation Analysis on Population Factors and Housing Sales Price Index (HSPI) (in Chinese), Population Journal, 1(6), 13-19.
Du, B., and Zhang, Y., 2011, Infant Mortality Rate Statistic Methods and Difference Analysis in China, Open Journal of Statistics, 1(3), 236-243.
Working papers
“Childbearing, Sex Selection and Household Savings with Incomplete Financial Markets: Theory and Evidence from Mainland China”.
Abstract
This paper examines childbearing decisions in developing countries where financial markets are incomplete, due to the lack of old-age entitlements, insurance and access to credit, and where social norms place expectations on children to support their parents financially in old age. Of special interest is how gender-specific differences in these expectations, with greater expectations placed on males, affect savings and childbearing decisions and potentially promote the use of sex-selective abortion. I build a discrete time stochastic life-cycle model for parents residing in China with three stages (fertile working life, infertile working life, and retirement) in which children serve as an asset that is illiquid during the parents’ working life, but which provides a financial payoff to the parent upon and after retirement. In each period of the fertile phase, parents observe the size and gender composition of their family, their cash holdings, and their stage in the life-cycle and decide how much to save, and whether to conceive a child and, if so, whether to test for the sex of the resulting fetus and abort if it is female. I solve the model numerically using collocation methods and backward induction, and analyze it using stochastic simulation techniques. My results show that: 1) a less restrictive birth control policy and higher returns on liquid wealth accumulation increase the number of children a household will have, but decreases the use of selective abortion; and 2) more generous government old-age entitlements and more liberal access to credit reduce the number of children and the use of selective abortion simultaneously. My reduced-form analysis based on the multinomial logit model with fixed effects also shows that the parents with the social security are less likely to have an additional child and to make sex selection than if they would not have the social security.
“Attitudes Toward and Perceptions of the Ambiguity of House Prices”.
Abstract
This study estimates individuals’ attitudes toward and perceptions of ambiguity of house prices, using experiment data from the Rand American Life Panel (ALP) survey. Following multiple prior models and α − MaxMin ambiguity preference, I estimate two important parameters in these frameworks: α, the degree of ambiguity aversion; and 1 − δ, the degree of confidence in the reference prior distribution of future prices, as a measurement of ambiguity perception. Based on the estimations, I then probe into the factors of ambiguity perception and how the perceptions of and attitudes toward ambiguity affect renters’ purchase behaviors. The results show that: 1) the degree of confidence in the reference prior distribution of the U.S. house prices one year forward is only 45.9% and the degree of ambiguity aversion (α) is 0.432, which indicates that U.S. citizens are slightly ambiguity-seeking with regard to house prices; 2) the state-level house price volatilities in the past one year and absolute growth rates in the past three years have a positive effect on the perceptions of ambiguity with regard to future house prices; and 3) ambiguity-averse renters are less likely to buy a house if they perceive greater ambiguity.
Abstract
This paper examines childbearing decisions in developing countries where financial markets are incomplete, due to the lack of old-age entitlements, insurance and access to credit, and where social norms place expectations on children to support their parents financially in old age. Of special interest is how gender-specific differences in these expectations, with greater expectations placed on males, affect savings and childbearing decisions and potentially promote the use of sex-selective abortion. I build a discrete time stochastic life-cycle model for parents residing in China with three stages (fertile working life, infertile working life, and retirement) in which children serve as an asset that is illiquid during the parents’ working life, but which provides a financial payoff to the parent upon and after retirement. In each period of the fertile phase, parents observe the size and gender composition of their family, their cash holdings, and their stage in the life-cycle and decide how much to save, and whether to conceive a child and, if so, whether to test for the sex of the resulting fetus and abort if it is female. I solve the model numerically using collocation methods and backward induction, and analyze it using stochastic simulation techniques. My results show that: 1) a less restrictive birth control policy and higher returns on liquid wealth accumulation increase the number of children a household will have, but decreases the use of selective abortion; and 2) more generous government old-age entitlements and more liberal access to credit reduce the number of children and the use of selective abortion simultaneously. My reduced-form analysis based on the multinomial logit model with fixed effects also shows that the parents with the social security are less likely to have an additional child and to make sex selection than if they would not have the social security.
“Attitudes Toward and Perceptions of the Ambiguity of House Prices”.
Abstract
This study estimates individuals’ attitudes toward and perceptions of ambiguity of house prices, using experiment data from the Rand American Life Panel (ALP) survey. Following multiple prior models and α − MaxMin ambiguity preference, I estimate two important parameters in these frameworks: α, the degree of ambiguity aversion; and 1 − δ, the degree of confidence in the reference prior distribution of future prices, as a measurement of ambiguity perception. Based on the estimations, I then probe into the factors of ambiguity perception and how the perceptions of and attitudes toward ambiguity affect renters’ purchase behaviors. The results show that: 1) the degree of confidence in the reference prior distribution of the U.S. house prices one year forward is only 45.9% and the degree of ambiguity aversion (α) is 0.432, which indicates that U.S. citizens are slightly ambiguity-seeking with regard to house prices; 2) the state-level house price volatilities in the past one year and absolute growth rates in the past three years have a positive effect on the perceptions of ambiguity with regard to future house prices; and 3) ambiguity-averse renters are less likely to buy a house if they perceive greater ambiguity.
Research in progress
“A Model of Housing Tenure Choice with Ambiguity and Ambiguity Aversion”.
“Environmental Policy and the Housing Market in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model”, with Yongyang Cai and Christos Makridis.
“Childbearing, Sex Selection and Old-age Pension”.
“Housing Policy and Migration: Evidence from Mainland China”.
“Learning to Reduce Food Waste by Selecting Less or Eating More: The Role of Perceptions of and Attitudes Toward Risk”, with Danyi Qi.
“Environmental Policy and the Housing Market in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model”, with Yongyang Cai and Christos Makridis.
“Childbearing, Sex Selection and Old-age Pension”.
“Housing Policy and Migration: Evidence from Mainland China”.
“Learning to Reduce Food Waste by Selecting Less or Eating More: The Role of Perceptions of and Attitudes Toward Risk”, with Danyi Qi.